Forbes – Imagine how regime change in Iran would utterly transform the world. So many knotty, insuperable obstacles all overcome in one stroke. Let us consider the benefits. They are so glaring that you can be sure President Obama and his advisors have chewed on them at some length.
As Reza Kahlili pointed out in this publication recently, a tremendous amount of U.S., European and Israeli naval hardware is heading to the Persian Gulf at this time. Are we on the brink of war? The time couldn't be more propitious. The Middle East's Sunni states are terrified of Tehran's lengthening shadow. They're begging for an intervention. They will likely even help finance it, as they did the first Gulf War. The Obama administration could use a distraction from oil spill woes and Afghan stalemates. Think of it this way: For each plus regime change would bring, there's an implied minus if the regime endures. The president may have no option.
So how would the world change if Iran were transformed?
–Supply lines to Afghanistan. No more strategic heart attacks whenever Kyrgyzstan convulses or Uzbekistan closes a U.S. base. Iran abuts the stable, Taliban-free western Afghan provinces. With a compliant Tehran, the U.S. can supply the Afghan war straight up from the Persian Gulf through Iran.
–No more toadying to Moscow. Russia holds an effective veto over U.S. supply bases in Moscow's former Soviet colonies bordering Afghanistan. Russia also holds a gun to our heads whenever we need help over curbing Iranian nukes. With a transformed Iran, the U.S. can say no to Moscow's leverage. As a result, from Poland to Georgia a whole swath of the world will finally get U.S. support to complete the process of liberation from Russia.
–Nuclear presence. The Iranian nuke threat will disappear, as will the prospect of the entire Middle East shopping for nuclear deterrents against Iran's threat.
–A freer Iraq. The grisly spectacle of Iraqi Shiite and Kurdish politicians shuttling to Tehran for patronage will abate. Tehran will cease to meddle in Iraqi affairs. The number of car bombs in Baghdad will decline–not least because the regional Sunni fear of Iran will cease to be played out in Iraq.
–A freer Lebanon. No more Hezbollah state within a state. At present Iran buys a distant border with Israel through its Hezbollah clients in southern Lebanon. A twitch from Tehran and Hezbollah fights a war with Israel, thereby destabilizing Lebanon and incessantly roiling the Arab street in the Middle East.
–A securer Israel and freer Gaza. The Iranian regime's support for Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon perpetuates strife in Palestine and gives Israeli hawks a legitimate excuse to postpone peace.
