1- Most political commentators have concluded that the current uprising has provided an unprecedented tipping point for toleration of the Maliki government.
2. Iraqiya and other factions that previously participated in the government now know that any sign of reconciliation with Maliki will bring about public outrage against them.
3. Contrary to last year’s uprising, this time the concentration of the demonstrations mostly in Sunni provinces, supported by parts of the government on one hand and a disinclination of the US to get involved on the other, leaves al-Maliki’s hands effectively tied. With the first signs of repressive reaction and violence to quell the riots, Iraqiya will have no choice but to pull out of the government and Parliament. This will significantly increase the public outrage against al-Maliki.
4. Al-Maliki only has two paths which he can follow, either to give concession in order to calm the crisis, which will lead to his resignation and free elections, or resorting to force, which will radicalise and spread the demonstrations and could sow the seeds of a revolution. Neither choice is attractive for the Iraqi Prime Minister.
Please click here to read Mr. Struan Stevenson’s full report to the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iraq on the political crisis and civil uprisings happening in the country.