NCRI Staff
NCRI – For years, many leaders in the Middle East have warned of the dangers of an Iranian-led Shia empire that stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean and now the Iranian Regime has a land corridor that stretches through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The leaders fear that this will lead to all-out war, as Iran attempts to take control of the entire area.
However, the fear of the Iranian Regime dominating the Middle East is vastly overblown.
Iran has little conventional military power, which is why it wanted a nuclear program so badly, and so it would be unwise for them to start a war. Ironically, their commitment to the nuclear program led to massive international sanctions which further hurt their military spending.
In comparison its enemies, most notably Saudi Arabia and Israel, have larger military budgets and more advanced Western military technologies.
Proxies
The Iranian land corridor is almost completely dependent on local proxies, whose loyalty is fairly unreliable and whose existence is vulnerable.
Take for example the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, who filled the place of ISIS in the war-torn country. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has made it a top priority to remove the PMU’s dominance in Iraq.
In Syria, dictator Bashar al-Assad has already begun to turn his back on Iran (thanks to Russian influence) because the Sunni rebel groups will not be part of a peace agreement that includes Iran’s Shiite Influence. It should also be noted that the US is also opposed to Iran’s continued existence in Syria and has left its troop there after defeating ISIS.
While in Lebanon, even the most loyal Iran proxy Hezbollah is turning its back on the Regime and trying to achieve domestic legitimacy. They’ve even called for the return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri who resigned in November fearing an Iranian attempt on his life.
The Iranian People’s Protest
Consider also that the Regime has consistently turned its back on its citizens in order to please its proxies, which has led to nationwide protests against the Regime. The Iranian people are chanting “Death to [supreme leader] Ali Khamenei” and calling for regime change, both ‘crimes’ punishable by death in Iran.
If the Regime doesn’t even have the support of its people, how can it possibly extend its tenuous reach? The Iranian people don’t want Iran to take over the Middle East, they want freedom, democracy and a working economy in their own country.
Source: Project Syndicate
