NCRI

The Consequences of Ignoring Tehran’s Role in the Escalating Middle East Conflict

iran irgc commanders chanting

On October 16, Josep Borrel, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EU Commission, informed the public about his discussions with Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian regarding the situation in Gaza. Borrel emphasized that he encouraged the regime in Iran to use its influence to prevent the escalation of tensions in the region.

In the aftermath of a major regional calamity that has had severe consequences for millions of Palestinians and significantly disrupted the socio-political landscape in large parts of the world, US officials declared that they lacked evidence of Tehran’s direct involvement in the conflict. Some individuals even echoed the Iranian regime’s perspective, suggesting that the leaders of the most active state sponsor of terrorism were taken by surprise when the attacks occurred on October 7.

Whether driven by electoral considerations or strategic pragmatism, the failure to recognize that billions of dollars in investment, decades of arming, and zealous propagating from Tehran are unrelated to a significant incident that enabled Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the regime, to assert influence over the region and prompt of holding veto-power over Middle East security is merely alarming.

Throughout his tenure leading the regime, Khamenei has sought to replace domestic legitimacy with a strategy of regional aggression, aiming to establish superiority among internal rivals. By empowering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the dominant force in Iran’s economy, he has fortified his own rule with a private army, rendering him immune to internal threats.

Through the IRGC, Khamenei oversees numerous paramilitary groups across the Middle East, negatively impacting the socio-political stability and economic prosperity of the respective countries. His primary message to the world is one of invincibility that can increase the cost of a firm policy vis-à-vis Tehran.

By urging the regime to “use its influence on extremist militias for de-escalation” and simultaneously refusing to acknowledge that the heart of Islamic extremism beats in Tehran, the West is actively disregarding the core of the problem while falsely portraying it as a solution. In doing so, these leaders are replicating a historical error akin to that of their predecessors in the late 1930s when faced with the rising threat of fascism across different parts of the world.

Weary and apprehensive of the horrors of war, appeasing statecraft during that era facilitated the ascent of dictators to formidable power. It took the world millions of innocent lives and left devastating effects for several successive generations to halt the once-minority of fanatical extremists.

While historical judgments benefit from hindsight, today’s world benefits from recorded insights. In contrast to the German Nazis and Italian fascists, Islamic fundamentalists in Iran lack substantial domestic support. Their rule has faced threats from numerous uprisings since the 1990s, and an organized resistance movement has contested their existence both inside and outside the country over four decades.

Over the past four decades, the West has been unsuccessful in both attempting to placate Khamenei’s terrorist regime into “moderation” and suppressing the Iranian Resistance to favor Tehran. In light of the damaging outcomes, even “Realpolitik” urges to try a policy change for a change.

Initiating a regime change in Iran does not entail military or even financial costs. It simply necessitates the courage to officially reject the appeasement policy and recognize the Iranian people’s right to self-determination, allowing them the means to reclaim freedom and establish genuine democracy.

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