By Roula Khalaf, Middle East editor
Financial Times – In deflecting pressure for a change of policy towards Iran and Syria, President George W. Bush is turning to traditional US allies in the Middle East.
Though hardly enchanted with US policy in Iraq and the rest of the region, the so-called "moderate" Arab states are as reluctant as the White House to give Tehran and Damascus a larger role in resolving the Iraq conflict.
Troubled by the rising influence and nuclear ambitions of Shia Iran in a largely Sunni Arab world, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are desperate to limit Tehran’s power in Iraq and bolster their own authority.
According to Jordanian officials, the message likely to have been delivered to Mr Bush on Wednesday by King Abdullah was that containing the civil war in Iraq was "not a matter of engaging with Iran and Syria", but rather involved more empowerment of Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority that dominates the insurgency.
A recommendation for direct US talks with Tehran and Damascus – which the US accuses of fomenting Iraqi unrest – is expected to emerge in the much-awaited report of a US bipartisan commission this month.
The Bush administration, however, has been asking pro-western Sunni regimes in the region to step up their own engagement in Iraq, by giving greater support to Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, and by pressing Iraq’s Sunni leaders to end support for the insurgency.
The meetings in Amman follow last week’s trip to Saudi Arabia by Dick Cheney, the US vice-president. Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, is expected to hold talks with foreign ministers from several pro-western Arab states in Jordan this week.
Jordanian and Saudi officials, meanwhile, have met in recent days Sunni religious leader Hareth al-Dhari, the head of Iraq’s Association of Muslim Scholars, who is accused in Baghdad of inciting violence.
Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have held consultations in recent months, forming, with the United Arab Emirates, an "Arab quartet" seeking to focus US attention on the Arab-Israeli peace process as a way of weakening Iran and Syria.
They argue that Tehran and Damascus have expanded their influence in the region by exploiting the conflicts in Iraq, the occupied Palestinian territories and in Lebanon, where they support militant groups. "We say let’s solve the Palestinian issue and deprive the extremists of these cards," said a Jordanian official.
From the Sunni Arab regimes’ perspective, the US invasion of Iraq handed the country to Shia parties allied to Iran, dangerously upsetting the balance of power in the region. Some Arab states – Saudi Arabia in particular – have launched their own dialogue with Tehran. "Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to enter into a confrontation with Iran. But the Saudis have made clear that they will not accept that Iraq falls into the hands of the Iranians," says one person close to the Saudi government.
Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi security analyst and government adviser, wrote in the Washington Post on Wednesday that if the US left Iraq "one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shia militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis".
Diplomats say the Arabs have grave doubts that engagement with Syria and Iran would do much to help Iraq. "On the one hand the Arab states want the situation to calm down so they understand that talking to Iran might be fundamental. But they also fear that if serious engagement happens they will be bypassed," says one European official in contact with Arab governments.
The perceived Iranian threat was magnified this summer by the war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hizbollah, the Shia group backed by Iran and Syria. The pro-western Arab states took the unusual step of criticising Hizbollah for sparking the conflict with the capture of two Israeli soldiers, leaving an impression among an infuriated public that they were rooting for Israel. That Hizbollah stood its ground in a month-long offensive left the Arab states on the defensive while Syria and Iran celebrated.
Arab officials say that giving Tehran and Damascus a greater role in containing Iraq’s civil war risks further emboldening them. "The Iraq war gave Iran an edge. It’s difficult to accept that peace would also give Iran an edge," says one Arab diplomat.
Nor are the pro-western Arab states clamouring to rehabilitate Syria. Indeed Saudi Arabia has virtually frozen ties after an August speech by Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad ridiculed Arab leaders as "half-men".
Syria’s role in Lebanon is the most immediate concern: Riyadh, Cairo and Amman want to shore up the pro-western Siniora government and derail Syrian-backed efforts by Hizbollah to bring the government down.
