On 12th December last year, President-elect Donald Trump told Gerald Seib of The Wall Street Journal that during his presidency the U.S. will “stop looking to topple regimes and overthrow governments”. However, it is possible that Trump can help the situation in Syria, or at least stop it from getting worse, without trying to topple a regime or overthrow a government.
Trump could urge countries with foreign fighters in Syria to leave. With Aleppo in the hands of the regime, Russia could easily abandon its support for Assad and aid a peaceful transition in Syria.
Iran is trying to keep Assad at the centre of its regional strategy and has done since 2011 when the Syrian civil war started. Commander of Iran’s Quds Special Force Qassem Suleimani has the task of ensuring that Russia remains in Syria, which it has.
Why is the Iranian regime so desperate to stay in Syria? Well, mainly because the Iranian regime has next to no legitimacy in its own country. The people of Iran have been repressed to the extreme and has very little popularity at home. Therefore, the regime has to keep its hard image in another way and abroad.
In Iran, people are reaching the end of their tether and opposition is stronger than ever. In 2009 there was an enormous crackdown on protesters and supporters of the opposition. Many of those killed were members of the PMOI / MEK (People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran). PMOI members are growing and the regime is realising it is fruitless to undermine its power and support from all over the world.
In 1988, the Islamic Republic ordered the execution of over 30,000 political prisoners with the hope of destroying the MEK. Yet it is still around and has more support than ever. In fact, it is a major part of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and is a friend of the Syrian opposition.
On 3rd December last year, President Obama shunned Israel and reached out to Iran at the United Nations vote. Trump is expected to take a different approach. He will “destroy” terrorists rather than attacking the leaders with drones.
If Trump were to keep the same policies in place as Obama, the Syrian opposition would never be able to survive. If however Trump manages to pull all foreign influences out of Syria and away from Assad, the opposition has a chance to survive. It needs to be a fair war in which Assad doesn’t have the support of tens of thousands of militias from Iran.