Wednesday’s release in Tehran was a break in a crisis that threatened to raise oil prices and increase fears of a wider military conflict in the region.
Despite all the public rejoicing over the hostages’ departure, Iran did not win its key demand — a public apology for violating Iranian waters. Instead, the decision to free the crew members followed a letter from the British government with a promise not to violate Iranian waters in the future. The letter arrived soon after Iran promised to stop broadcasting video that appeared to show crewmembers confessing to crossing into Iranian territory.
But from Iran’s perspective, the episode still brought a major Western nation almost to apologize for an oversight it never admitted.
Yet appearances are never trustworthy when dealing with the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He played both demagogue and conciliator during the crisis. This is likely because various rival Iranian factions were exploiting the economic isolation created by the United Nation’s sanctions over Iran’s defiant nuclear power plans.
Even as Prime Minister Tony Blair thanked the Iranians for his countrymen’s release, he reiterated Britain’s commitment with the United States, Russia and China to continue applying international pressure on Iran’s nuclear power plans.
The sailors’ release could just be that the hard-line leadership decided it had over-extended its hand this time.