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Following the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and drone strike on Israel on the night of April 13, the Iranian regime is showing signs of heightened anxiety and concern. Alongside trying to hide the economic instability and financial instability, Tehran is cracking down on dissent and using various officials to promote aggressive rhetoric in the media and public forums. Despite efforts to suppress criticism, contradictory statements from state officials continue to reveal their underlying fear and unease.
While employing rhetoric and displays of power, the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi practically admitted to reports regarding the communication of the attack and the elimination of the element of surprise. This admission has been interpreted by many experts as Tehran’s fear of risking an escalation with Western powers. On April 14, Raisi said: “In this operation, the military and diplomatic branches of the Foreign Ministry had complete coordination, and each section performed its duty well.”
Saadollah Zarei, a former IRGC commander, sought to justify the Iranian regime’s military failure in an extensive article in the Kayhan newspaper. Embedding his acknowledgment within a litany of justifications, Zarei stated, “The retaliatory attack of ‘Sincere Vow’ [the regime’s name for the April 13 attack on Israel] was not a covert and surprising operation, and there was no possibility of operational surprise in it.”
Beneath the verbal bravado of other officials and regime analysts, the fear of exposing weakness was even more pronounced.
On the same day, Abolfazl Amouee, the spokesman for the Parliament’s National Security Commission, said, “If last night’s action had not been taken, the Zionist regime might have made a miscalculated move and targeted inside our borders… Our dear people should know that if this action had not been taken, the Zionist regime might have made a different interpretation of Iran’s self-restraint.”
Amouei also went on to claim, “We are prepared to use a weapon that we have not used before.”
After Strike on Israel, #Iranian Regime’s #Media Crackdown Hints at Strategic Defeathttps://t.co/CvuPKPCGsb
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 15, 2024
Alireza Taqavian, a state-affiliated analyst, also said: “The Islamic Republic realized that the cost of not responding to Israeli actions was higher than responding. If the Islamic Republic did not respond, it was not because of its weakness, not because it lacked the capability. It had other reasons. However, this calculation changed after the assassination of General Zahedi and other IRGC forces at the consulate.”
Abolfazl Bazargan, a security researcher, made strenuous efforts to portray the regime’s military setback as a display of strength. On April 14, he stated: “The events of last night can be viewed from various angles, but personally, it was extraordinary for me. Why? Because after eighty years, a nuclear-armed country was attacked, and I attribute this directly to the courage and audacity of Mr. Khamenei’s leadership, which implemented the entire nuclear deterrence principle in the field of international relations as well.”
One aspect of the regime’s psychological warfare and propaganda was the widespread dissemination of false information and fabricated images on social media and even in the mainstream media.
In the initial hours of the attack, videos circulated on state-controlled media accounts, depicting fabricated accounts of ballistic missile strikes on intended military targets, the evacuation of Israeli citizens, and the celebration of Palestinians at Al-Aqsa Mosque, which were all falsified. These images were first shared on media outlets close to the regime and then repeatedly broadcast on state television.
For instance, the regime claimed “evidence of missile strikes on an Israeli base” using an old video of a fire in Chile. Another fabricated video showed Palestinians celebrating at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which in reality was footage from a Ramadan event and was posted on TikTok on April 4th. Another fabricated video, attributed to the “incompetence of Israeli defense,” showed Ukrainian missiles hitting a Russian ship in southern Ukraine on March 23rd.
Meanwhile, speaking on condition of anonymity, a state official disclosed to Reuters that the Iranian people “are frustrated because of economic woes and social restrictions.” The official further expressed concerns that the government fears that they “unleash their pent-up anger and revive protests” in the event of a foreign war.