THE HILL (Congress Blog) – By Ken Maginnis 21 Feb 2012
Recent announcements on the Tehran regime’s nuclear advancements by Iran’s extremist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad make it clear that Tehran is as defiant as ever in its drive to acquire the ultimate nuclear know-how.
While the Obama administration, conscious that it is in an election year, scrambles to find the effective answer to Iran’s provocation, one thing should be evident – the Iranian rulers have no intention to give up their quest for atomic weapons.
While international isolation, economic sanctions, covert actions, and even the possible use of force can slow the nuclear program’s progress, there is but one way to end it permanently – by replacing the present regime through the resistance of the Iranian people. This is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the Obama administration’s Iran policy.
Last October, the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iran is operating more sophisticated centrifuges than previously and was accumulating a stockpile of enriched uranium that could, one day, produce enough for four atomic weapons. Hence, the tripling of production of enriched uranium to the 20 percent level, significantly shortening the time to reach weapons grade material.
Ahmadinejad’s announcement simply makes the situation more alarming. Clearly, Iran is moving ahead with the technologies used in the production of atomic bombs, and is not far from being able to exercise that option if it so chooses. Last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in about one year.
Moreover, Tehran is speeding up development as it increasingly feels the effects of sanctions on its economy. The regime is witnessing ‘Arab spring’ and desperately wants to avoid the fate of leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and possibly in Syria. They obviously believe that had Gadaffi not given up his own nuclear weapons’ program, he might have remained in power.
Now a nuclear arsenal could embolden Tehran to promote its ambitions even more aggressively – in support of terrorists and Islamic extremists or for intimidation and blackmail. A nuclear-armed Iran would be a direct threat to U.S. forces and allies in the Gulf, as well as in the greater Middle East, not least to Israel. One cannot ignore the growing threat that Iranian nuclear capability could lead to a pre-emptive strike by Israel.
In a nutshell, Iran achieving its nuclear ambitions would be a true game changer. Internally, it would feel secure in repressing its own people, who are in reality the greatest threat to the regime’s survival. Internationally, if dealing with Iran today is a headache, if would become a nightmare.
So, what are the options?
The most common response is to apply more economic and financial sanctions against the regime, especially against Iran’s central bank, as well as the EU embargo on oil to be implemented in months. But sanctions have not accomplished their goal up to now! With China willing to take up any slack from any US/EU boycott of Iranian oil, so the West’s economic sanctions become less meaningful. At this critical juncture it is faced with very hard choices and very huge risks.
The most acceptable and only sustainable solution to the Iranian nuclear threat is the emergence of a free and democratic Iran. This is what the mullahs see as the greatest threat to their rule, which has become ever more tenuous since massive uprisings in 2009.
Yet this is where the U.S. is making a grave mistake by shackling the main Iranian opposition movement, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK). By keeping it on the State Department’s list of foreign terror organizations (FTOs), where it was put 15 years as part of a failed attempt to appease the mullahs then, the U.S. is frustrating its own strategy.
The D.C. Court of Appeal has asked the State Department to reconsider, finding that MEK had been put on the FTO list without due process, and has challenged the government to produce any evidence it has to justify its contradictory stance. To date, zero evidence has been produced – because there is zero evidence.
Dozens of senior former officials in the government – a bipartisan group of individuals of great integrity – have joined together with more 100 members of Congress to publicly support delisting the MEK.
The MEK, led by Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the charismatic and fearless leader of the Iranian Resistance, enjoys widespread support inside Iran and among the Iranian diaspora. Ironically it has been the MEK that has made the most significant revelations about Iran’s clandestine nuclear program, including the enrichment sites of Natanz and Arak in 2002, which were kept secret until then. Without MEK information Tehran may already have had the bomb.
Delisting of the MEK would send the strongest message to Tehran that Washington has really got to grips with reality. Tehran opposes delisting of the MEK and is intent on destroying Camp Ashraf, the home of 3,400 MEK members in Iraq that acts as a symbol of resistance for freedom for the Iranian people.
To contain Tehran’s drive for nuclear weapons, Washington should view the MEK as an ally, not as terrorists. All sides in Iranian politics – both the mullahs and the Iranian people – will hear that message loud and clear.
During the massive anti-government demonstrations in 2009, Iranian youth chanted, “Mr. Obama, are you with the mullahs or with us”? Now is the time for the U.S. President to give his long overdue answer, clearly and unequivocally!
Maginnis is the Baron of Drumglass and a member of the British House of Lords
