Agence France Presse, LONDON – Referring Iran to the UN Security Council is now "a done deal," a European diplomatic source said Monday, as talks on the brewing crisis over Tehran’s nuclear programme took place in London.
"The Russians are agreed now. They have changed their position," said the source. "The Chinese are still a little hesitant, but effectively a Security Council referral is now a done deal. It will go to the Security Council."
Senior officials from Britain, France and Germany — the EU nations which have tried to negotiate with Iran — were discussing the referral option Monday with counterparts from China, Russia and the United States.
Iran, which has close trade and energy ties with China and Russia, denies that its nuclear ambitions are anything other than peaceful.
Getting the IAEA to refer Iran’s non-compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty and IAEA resolutions would be a prelude to possible UN sanctions, or a mandatory order to Tehran to halt its nuclear research work.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the diplomatic source said the United States wanted an emergency meeting of IAEA governors in Vienna to be convened this week, "but it looks like it won’t be until next week".
Such a delay would enable IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei to prepare a new report on Iran’s lack of cooperation with inspectors from his UN watchdog agency, based in the Austrian capital.
"He has already spelled out his position that, after nearly three years, he is still not in a position to judge the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme," the diplomatic source said.
"There are problems with access and so on. Generally it will not be positive for Iran."
If the IAEA does refer Iran to the Security Council, it remains unclear what the next step will be.
"The are various options, and nothing has been decided," the source said.
"But the idea is for the Security Council, in the immediate term, to reinforce the position of the IAEA, and back up the previous IAEA resolutions that have so far been ignored by Iran."
"That could come in the form of a statement from the UN Security Council, or a resolution. That is open to discussion."
Ali Ansari, an Iran specialist at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, told AFP that he anticipated "a very slow build-up" due in part to Beijing’s reluctance to jeopardise its energy supply with Tehran.
"I don’t expect anything dramatic in the first instance," Ansari told AFP in London.
"China has signed a huge agreement on oil (with Iran). It doesn’t want to see its economic interests affected and also feels it has a role to play on the international stage."
"It will go to the UN and will be discussed…. On the whole, it will be seen as something that needs to be thought at carefully, and people taking their time over it. It is in nobody’s interest at the moment to rush into a crisis."
