Source: The Wall Street Journal
Forget the last 11 years: the false starts, the glimpses of hope, the long periods of near-breakdown and despair.
On May 13, Iran and six major powers will begin a grueling period of just over two months in which they hope to bury once and for all international concerns over the nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for agreeing a phased lifting of sanctions.
The two sides have set a target date of July 20 to finalize a deal. Talks could extend an additional six months if both sides agree but everyone seems keen to build on current momentum and seal an accord.
But those who experienced the long days of tense negotiations in Geneva last October and November that eventually produced a landmark interim agreement probably ain’t seen nothing yet.
After the latest round of talks closed Wednesday, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif gave a taste of what lies ahead for negotiators, reporters and the people in Iran, the broader Middle East and elsewhere aware how high the stakes are. “Following our meetings last month… we have now held substantive and detailed discussions covering all the issues which will need to be part of a Comprehensive agreement,” they said.
“A lot of intensive work will be required to overcome the differences which naturally still exist at this stage in the process.”
Russia’s top negotiator at the nuclear talks put it more succinctly Wednesday, according to news agency Interfax. “We have not accomplished even a third of the work,” Sergei Ryabkov was quoted saying.
Iran negotiates over its nuclear activities with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. Tehran insists its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes and that it has never sought nuclear weapons.
In Geneva, the worst it got was the final round of talks, which lasted four full days and ended at around 3 am on November 24 to the backdrop of a folk-music band blaring out Johnny Cash songs for a charity concert in a hotel lobby. A senior U.S. official said Wednesday even May’s talks, where the real drafting work will begin, could drag on longer. Mr. Zarif and Baroness Ashton announced only the May 13 start date and didn’t say when talks will end.
“Every time we have come to any of these rounds… we all come with the presumption that we will stay as long as we need to stay. Obviously as one begins to get into drafting, it is even more possible that we will stay longer than we plan to stay. So I assume that is why neither Lady Ashton… nor Minister Zarif and their teams gave an end date. We are all planning for the week to be here and we’ll do whatever is necessary.”
“I think for all of us involved in this between now and July 20, we understand that there is no higher priority, the stakes are quite high… and so everyone in the room has said they are ready to do whatever they need to do and change their schedules and their life to do what is necessary.”
But surely with all that effort and determination, the negotiations should deliver a genuinely historic final deal. Don’t bet on it, the official warned.
“I would caution everyone from thinking that a final agreement is imminent or that it will be easy. As we draft, I have no doubt this will be quite difficult at times …We will not rush into a bad deal. We just won’t do it.”