News time – May 26, According to analysts the increased threat of having a safe haven for terrorists, under the umbrella which will be created by a nuclear Iran, far outweighs any consideration being given to the question of whether President Ahmadinejad or any of his administration would be willing to press the button once this capability is acquired.
Terrorism
Iran has consistently been described by the United States as the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It actively supports terrorist groups, most prominently the Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas.
Interestingly, despite the Shiite-Sunni divide, Iran does not distinguish between the different forms of Islam content to sponsor whoever is committing acts of terror on their enemies, real or perceived. Ahmadinejad has even been happy to not only sponsor terrorists but allow their training on Iranian soil.
Aim
Tehran is intent on gaining hegemony in the Middle East starting in the Persian Gulf and later spreading throughout the entire region.
As the leading Shiite state it is seeking to unite all the Muslims who follow their form of Islam under one umbrella headed by themselves. In this regard their continued involvement in Iraq and Yemen has not been coincidental but rather part of their efforts to unite with the Shiite majorities in those states.
In addition Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are acutely aware that the current regime is no longer as popular as it once was, which resulted in the military having to use live rounds against protesters in order to quell widespread demonstrations against the government. Accusations of vote rigging and election fraud are becoming more and more frequent.
The manner in which Iran has dealt with internal opposition has been attracting worldwide condemnation and causing the regime no-little unease.
Nuclear Program
Iran claims to be intent on acquiring a civil nuclear program aimed at peaceful applications domestically. It’s conduct including, but not limited to, concealing its facility at Qom, delaying compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and patently playing for time in its dealings with the world powers clearly indicates otherwise.
At present it stands on the brink of increased strategic sanctions by the world powers despite a last ditch attempt to avoid the same through a nuclear swap deal via Turkey and Brazil.
On Wednesday Ahmadinejad castigated Russia for caving in to US demands while offering US President Barack Obama a historic opportunity for ties with Tehran if he sanctions the deal with Turkey and Brazil.
In truth there can be no doubting that Iran wants nuclear weapons capability for at least two compelling reasons :
Firstly to obtain hegemony in the region by providing an unassailable fortress for their Shiite allies as well as terrorist groups. Their influence would become enormous. Just as India could not hit back against Pakistan after Mumbai because of her nuclear capability so too would Iran offer terrorists the same umbrella.
Secondly the threat from within could be eliminated once and for all. No foreign intervention would be possible, pursuant to which the regime could crack down hard on any dissension in the country.
Prognosis
It is clear that military intervention will not be entertained by the world powers at this stage. The Western countries have more than enough on their plate with Afghanistan and Iraq and Russia and China would not consider it in any event.
This leaves sanctions on the table.
While there is no doubt that they will squeeze Tehran there is even less doubt that Ahmadinejad will not be swayed from the path of acquiring nuclear weapons for the reasons stated above as well as his conduct throughout the nuclear weapons debate.
Accordingly something will have to give, either in the form of Iran acquiring the weapons and using them to threaten the global community to back down or a change of heart regarding intervention spurred on by an internal uprising.
Either way it’s going to get very ugly very quickly.
