The 2+1 Coalition had initially agreed to hold the pact and toward the end two drop out while the third one who can muster the most votes stay in the race. It was strongly believed that Ghalibaf would be the candidate to do the job since the “polls” tend to be in his favor.
At the end all three stayed in the race claiming it is hard to tell which one in leading.
On the other hand, Velayati stayed in the race and Hadad Adel did not keep his promise of actively campaign in favor of the other members of the pact.
Mohammad Reza Aref left when he received the green light from Mohammad Khatami, regime’s former president and the blessing of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Khatami’s next move was to throw his full support behind Hassan Rohani in a written statement on June 11.
On Tuesday, Rafsanjani backed Rohani without naming him when speaking with entrepreneurs in Northern Province Gilan.
He said: “What happened to me during this period is tolerable because it was for the sake of God and tribute to Islam and faithful people of Iran. Despite that I am not disappointed and I hope by presence of all people with various tastes in the election a competent person is elected someone who is moderate and skilled, has executive experience and has experienced up and down and crises of various eras.”
In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was Khamenei definite chose for the top job. when Mousavi Lari, Khatami’s interior minister, opposed Ahmadinejad for Tehran’s mayor, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, parliament’s deputy speaker, told him that they want him as president, you don’t even accept him as the mayor?
In 2009, with the IRGC’s full backing Ahmadinejad came on top. This time around however, Khamenei does not wield the same power and is in much weaker position. This time Iran is in a volatile state ready for a spark. In Esfahan central Iran, last week, Jalaluddin Taheri’s funeral procession was turned into a full scale antigovernment demonstration with people chanting “death to dictator.”
Now the big question in Khamenei’s own camp revolves around his favorite candidate this time? His cronies cannot hid the disarray among them.
Khamenei in his public speech and secret meetings with the commanders of revolutionary guards emphasizes that no can guess his vote.
He also met with the members of parliament and said whoever claims knowledge of my favored candidate, do not believe him; no one knows about my vote!
To shed some light as to what Khamenei is up to this time around, in September 2008, he clearly told Ahmadinejad to plan for the next five years as president. The ballot boxes obeyed!
Khamenei is facing serious problems with taming people in his own camp. A good example was internal feuding between head of three branches of the regime government. To end it all, Khamenei threatened them with treasonous.
For June 14 elections, from Khamenei’s own camp some 30 people stepped in the race. An array of former government ministers, former members of parliament. Ironically, they all claim to be supreme leader’s stanched supporters but with their own agendas.
Inside reports clearly indicate that rifts extent all the way to the rank and file of revolutionary guards. Contrary to 2009 in which an order from the IRGC command would direct revolutionary guards and Basij forces how to vote and fake votes. This time around every revolutionary guard’s commander has his own color and dance to a different drum. This makes stage-managing the whole show even more difficult for Khamenei.
In this election, Khamenei turned his attention to the Guardian Council for election “engineering” and in addition to Rafsanjani and Rahim Mashaei he has removed candidates of his own faction. He eliminated Hassan Abu-Torabi, who was the candidate of Society of Combatant Clergy and Society of Seminaries, and was supported by Mahdavi Kani, head of the Assembly of Experts. He also eliminated the candidate favored by Mesdbah Yazdi.
Khamenei is not out of the woods despite all the efforts to control the elections in every step of the way. He has not counted Rohani as much. Now he has to come up with another plan to get rid of him. He has instructed his stanched followers to go out and campaign for whom not to vote for!
Inside report tend to show that Khamenei may lean in the direction of Saeed Jalili, regime’s chief negotiator with the six world powers on Khamenei’s nuclear ambitions. The problem with Jalili is that his rating has declined right after the debates.
To boost Jalili, Khamenei is planning to spread rumors that Velayati is his main favorite not Jalili.
The revolutionary guards’ candidate
In a meeting on 25 April 2013, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), and other IRGC commanders had heated discussions on who to support between Ghalibaf and Jalili. However, they did not reach consensus on one candidate. After the meeting it is said that General Mohammad Ali Jafari, General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Qods force, mullah Ali Saeedi, Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC, and some other high ranking IRGC commanders are inclined toward Ghalibaf but other IRGC commanders support Jalili.
In a closed session of IRGC commanders on June 8, 2013, some commanders implicitly supported Jalili but it was highlight that the IRGC as an organization does not exclusively support any candidate and either one of Ghalibaf, Velayati or Jalili would be acceptable.