On Thursday, the Canadian government imposed new sanctions on 17 individuals and three other entities believed to be directly involved in the attempted suppression of protests which have been going on for the past month, since 22-year-old Mahsa Amini fell into a coma and died after being assaulted by “morality police.”
Those measures came one day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a speech to ambassadors from across the European Union in which she declared that “the shocking violence inflicted on the Iranian people cannot stay unanswered.” Later on Wednesday, the ambassadors in that meeting indicated that they had agreed to impose new human rights-related sanctions on at least 15 Iranian individuals and groups, though formal adoption of those measures is not expected until Monday, October 17 when EU Foreign Ministers meet in Luxembourg.
Officials from Germany and other EU member states have been pushing for those measures in recent days, in reaction to reports of escalating repression inside Iran as well as unilateral pressures being adopted by Britain and the United States. The former imposed sanctions on Iran’s morality police, its lead official, and the head of its Tehran division last week following similarly targeted sanctions by the US. Separately, Britain sanctioned a number of figures who had played a role in crackdowns on a prior uprising in November 2019, which killed upwards of 1,500 Iranian citizens.
Some have questioned the practical value of this ongoing accumulation of financial penalties since there is little reason to believe that any of their targets have assets or business dealings in Western nations which might provide opportunities for enforcement.
However, the outpouring of sanctions from multiple Western governments may yet signify a broader change in policy and one that could lead to the adoption of more effective strategies over time. This possibility was underscored on Thursday by a press briefing from US State Department spokesperson Ned Price in which he declared that an agreement to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was no longer the focus of White House policy.
Several commentaries had emerged in advance of that briefing which criticized the US and its allies for sending mixed messages by pursuing negotiations with the Iranian regime at the same time they were condemning Amini’s killing and the ensuing crackdowns on dissent which, according to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), have now killed more than 400 people. Even the administration of Ebrahim Raisi seemed to taunt the US over this discrepancy on Tuesday, with Deputy Chief of Staff for Political Affairs Mohammad Jamshidi claiming that the US had made “thirty-odd” requests for direct talks with the Islamic Republic.
In meeting with Rep. Randy Weber I emphasized on the importance of recognizing the Iranian people’s right to self-defense in their fight to overthrow the ruling theocracy & establish freedom & human rights
The Congressman reiterated that we need to be behind the citizens of Iran pic.twitter.com/LnkexXltHR— Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) October 2, 2022
Other officials elaborated by suggesting that the protesters, who have been heard chanting slogans like “death to the dictator” in reference to Khamenei, had been motivated by the “excitement” they experienced under the influence of social media and foreign news broadcasts.
Raisi attended an international conference in Kazakhstan on Thursday and used the occasion to accuse the US of pursuing a “policy of destabilization.” However, neither he nor any other prominent official attempted to explain how the US had supposedly manufactured expressions of popular outrage in all 31 Iranian provinces and every major city immediately after Mahsa Amini’s death.
In the context of such a geographically and demographically diverse uprising, the official narrative of foreign manipulation is receiving some pushback from unlikely sources, including former government officials and some state-linked media outlets. Former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative politician, recently gave an interview in which he seemed to acknowledge that the ongoing protests express a genuine public sentiment about issues like the forced veiling of women – a sentiment that has only been encouraged by the current administration’s effort to very strictly enforce that law on the streets, resulting in Amini’s death and the injury of countless other women.
Although Larijani urged a “cultural solution” for keeping women veiled, his remarks still led the UK’s Guardian newspaper to declare that “the first cracks have started to appear among Iran’s political elite over the country’s month-long women-led protests.”
However, where Larijani is concerned, the appearance of dissent is perhaps better explained as part of a strategy to mitigate protesters’ outrage by giving the appearance of openness to dialogue over the issues at hand. Indeed, Larijani would not be the first person to employ such a strategy, given that even Raisi and his judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, have previously made remarks which seemed to express sensitivity to protesters’ concerns, only to contradict themselves soon thereafter.
Almost a month into the new wave of uprisings and on the verge of a spectacular change that many observers tend to call the new Iranian Revolution, it is obvious that international support is as crucial as it is insufficient. Being built on the ashes of the previous monarchial dictator, the clerical regime has learned a historic lesson and it will never abandon power at will.
Despite the most severe sanctions in the last two decades, the regime has never neglected material support for its security forces, nor weakened its chain of command. As popular cries for change expands and continue to endanger the Supreme Leader’s rule, the bloody crackdown will only intensify and outpace the international pressure.
If the international community truly intends to prevent a bloodbath in Iran, it must make clear that it has decided to stand with the Iranian people and not their oppressors. Closing the regime’s embassies, stopping diplomatic engagement, and acknowledging the Iranian people’s right to self-defense will communicate a vivid determination to the regime’s leadership and those who preserve the regime on the streets.