By: Dominique Brière
Source: Revue Parlementaire, no 918 (Monthly publication of the French National Assembly), July 2009 issue
Both the uprising and the suppression in Iran have shocked the world and surprised governments. In the last article, we had emphasized the support of the Supreme Leader for the incumbent president. We even pointed out, “The toleration of peaceful opposition could be fatal to the regime. The people could pour into the street at the first opportunity.”
By: Dominique Brière
Source: Revue Parlementaire, no 918 (Monthly publication of the French National Assembly), July 2009 issue
Both the uprising and the suppression in Iran have shocked the world and surprised governments. In the last article, we had emphasized the support of the Supreme Leader for the incumbent president. We even pointed out, “The toleration of peaceful opposition could be fatal to the regime. The people could pour into the street at the first opportunity.”
This is what happened once fantasies were quashed by the announcement of the "re-election" of Ahmadinejad. The operation was planned well, but the plot was too obvious. Numerous cases of fraud were reported. The ballot boxes were filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the paramilitary Bassiji…
The Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which is always well informed, had announced before the elections that the Supreme Leader has issued orders to get Ahmadinejad elected in the first round. The Ministry of Interior announced the illusive victory of Ahmadineajd at a time when just 20 % of votes were counted.
The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, refused in his Friday prayer sermon, to annul the results. At the same time, he gave a green light for a violent crackdown. Dozens or perhaps hundreds of young students were killed in the streets, while thousands of others were arrested. Yet the protests continued.
The regime is trying to sober up the main rival of Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Moussavi, a man who comes from within the state’s ranks and was in the past Khomeini’s Prime Minister.
Moussavi’s indecision, coupled with his declarations of loyalty to the principle of the absolute supremacy of clerical rule (Velayat-e Faqih), has discouraged Iranians. Moussavi has fallen behind the developments. The population’s demands have been radicalized. Demanding the annulment of the elections at the start, now they chant “Down with dictator” and “Death to Khamenei.” Chanting these slogans, they confront empty-handedthe repressive forces who are armed to the teeth. Will the government be able to reconcile with the defeated faction and suffocate the insurgency in blood? Although the prospects are not certain, whatever happens the situation will not be the same as before.
Several myths went up in smoke during the June uprising. The perceived sacred authority of the Supreme Leader has disappeared forever. His "Islamic Republic" is not "invincible" and has lost its stability. The theory of the regime shifting towards moderation demonstrated its limits. The prevailing image of an apolitical young generation, which the media sought to trumpet, has given way to the image of a dynamic and enlightened generation, which has surprised the world with its bravery.
Iranians have shown how much the biased analyses of the "experts" and "former ambassadors" allied with the Islamic Republic were separated from reality.
The talk of regime change has spread to all streets. Even the Interior Minister says, “Those who organize these gatherings do not support any of the candidates.” The regime has also announced the arrest of people linked to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) and accused them of organizing the revolt.
At the same time, in Villepinte near Paris, the NCRI, the main Iranian opposition movement which includes the PMOI as a member, organized a huge rally.
90,000 Iranians attended the rally from all over Europe to listen to the leader of the resistance, Maryam Rajavi. She paid tribute to the national uprising of Iranians and said, “This is the beginning of the end for the religious dictatorship”.
“The only feasible option for the Iranian people is democratic change,” she added.
She believes that international reactions are not proportionate to the degree of brutality used by the clerical regime in the course of its suppression: " Words are not enough; It is time to act. The era of complacency, negotiations and concessions to the Iranian regime has come to a close."
She offers concrete proposals: "Diplomatic relations must be suspended and comprehensive sanctions on trade, weapons, and technology must be imposed. The annulment of the sham elections of the regime must be supported and the regime must be forced to accept free elections under United Nations supervision. The case of the regime’s crimes must be referred to the UN Security Council. An international tribunal must be set up to bring to trial regime officials. "
It seems that the winds of change are blowing in Iran, and the world must listen to the opposition.