NCRI – Two major appointments have been made by US President Trump in as many weeks. The two key officials to be replaced are Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser (NSA) H.R. McMaster. And they are the two that have been preventing Trump from pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Before even taking office, Trump vowed to scrap the nuclear deal. He has been highly critical of the agreement that was drawn up during Barack Obama’s time in office.
The new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the new NSA John Bolton, a former ambassador to the United Nations, have not kept their concerns about the Iran nuclear deal to themselves. They have both criticised the Iranian regime’s belligerence and voiced their concerns about the poorly drawn up nuclear deal.
Therefore, many believe that these new appointments signal an impending withdrawal from the deal. Trump has often noted his intent on dealing with the Iran threat thoroughly and decisively and he is certainly not appeasing the regime in the way that the previous administration did.
Furthermore, Trump and Tillerson’s differences of opinion with regards to how the US should deal with Iran have always been a sticking point between the two, and Trump even mentioned it as one of the reasons for wanting to replace Tillerson.
In January, Trump warned Europe that it had until 12th May to strengthen the weaknesses of the nuclear and remove the flaws otherwise the US will reimpose the nuclear-related sanctions that were lifted when the deal was agreed. This means that the United States will renegade on its commitment. The lifting of sanctions was the Iranian regime’s motivation for agreeing to the deal.
If the United States does withdraw from the deal, what could this mean?
There is the possibility that things could go back to the way it was before the deal when the US punished transnational and foreign entities for associating with Iranian regime. The US made them decide whether to choose Iran’s side or the US’. It is this that brought Iran to the negotiations in the first place.
However, there is also the possibility that Trump may – initially anyway – impose sanctions that will only have consequences for Iran directly. That way he can avoid riling the Europeans who are concerned about the economic impact on them.
Many believe that the second option is the most likely. Although Trump wants to get to the Iranian regime in any way possible, the second option will not put relations with his European allies in danger.
Trump has previously alluded to regime change in Iran and it is becoming very clear that this is the most viable way of achieving peace and security in the region. Iran is involved in all the conflicts in the region and it is funding terrorism and exporting its revolution. Even the people of Iran have realised that regime change is the only way forward.