By: Ghossan Sharbell — Al-Hayat Newspaper
May 20, 2007
Translated by Mousa Afshar
How would the Iranian ambassador feel when he meets the American ambassador in Baghdad to discuss Iraq’s security matters and its future? How would the American ambassador feel? Undoubtedly the Bush administration would have preferred not to have this meeting at this location. And unquestionably Ayatollah Khomeini’s country would have preferred to discuss all the open issues.
At the end reality prevails. The situation is not ready for a grand bargain. Neglecting facts are no longer possible either. Therefore, the meeting is inevitable and will have to take place, but only about one topic: “The ailing one.”
It is not easy to guess how each side feels. Will the Iranian side feel the sweet taste of revenging “Saddam’s Ghadessieh” that turned the Islamic revolution into a battle ground for years? Or will it feel sweet vengeance against an eastern gate that has prevented it from expanding deep into the Arab region?
Will Iran feel that the situation of American forces in the war-torn Iraq resembles that of the American hostages in the US embassy in Tehran? And will this country have to expedite their leave? Will Iran feel the satisfaction of ruining Bush’s dream of removing Saddam from power and establishing a democracy [in Iraq] that its glimmer will threaten the neighboring totalitarian regimes? Or would Tehran be smiling that this meeting means that the Bush administration has given in and has accepted that there cannot be stability in Iraq without involvement of the Mullah’s regime.
And how will the American ambassador feel? Doesn’t this meeting imply the fact that Iran is meddling in Iraqi affairs? Will he feel that the George Bush administration is now stepping towards an Irangate? How will it feel to realize that the only superpower in the world could not make a move in the Middle East without confronting Iran?
Do Americans need another meeting to guarantee the security of oil and its passageway? And yet another to guarantee Israel’s security especially after Hezbollah missiles hit at the heart of Israel last summer? And another one yet to ask the Iranians to guarantee next year’s Lebanese elections? Will there be a need to have another meeting about having Hamas quiet down in Gaza? How about the nuclear standoff?
Last January, Iraq’s President Talebani told Al-Hayat newspaper that Iran is ready to discuss issues concerning “Afghanistan all the way to Lebanon” with the Americans. He tried to set up a meeting in Iraq at the time but failed. I met Jalal Talebani who still thinks along the same lines a few days ago and he is looking forward to this meeting.
Iran has been successful in dancing the Americans having pushed them to overthrow their enemies; Taleban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Iran has gone out of its way to encourage the Americans in doing so. But then it turned and started playing a new game.
Iran transformed America’s presence in Iraq into a daily hell. The plan is clear. They would like the Americans to reach out to them for help. They would like to raise their price. They would like their regime to be recognized as an indispensable partner in securing oil and stabilizing the whole region.
There is no reason to remind you of the Ping-Pong diplomacy. Khamenei’s Iran is not Mao’s China. And Iraq, though very dangerous, is definitely not Vietnam. There is no need for a rerun of the Cuban missile crisis and what took place afterwards. Ahmadinejad’s Tehran is far from being Nikta Kruschoff’s Moscow. We now live in a different world and should stand afar from such comparisons.
It is naive to think that taking American pressure off Iran will help change its behavior making way for an orange revolution in that country. On the contrary, America’s premature pullback from chaotic Iraq will make Iran a major player in the internal conflict there. Iran in such conflict, in its turn, could easily drown and fall apart.
American engagement in Iraq creates serious obstacle for Iran’s expansionist policy in the region. Iran’s ideology seeks leadership role in the region and in the Islamic world; a role larger than its capabilities. Even Russians fell apart under all the obligations and over spread of thier resources.
The Rendezvous in Baghdad is an encounter between the United States and Iran in an Arab country to discuss the future of a very important Arab nation. This meeting is taking place in the absence of other Arabs. We will have to wait and see if this is a big game or a grand bargain.
The Bush administration created an Iraq phobia before Saddam Hussein’s overthrow. Is Iran doing the same thing after Saddam Hussein’s removal from power? Is this the right time for the meeting or will there being a sudden change of plans right before it happens?
