What we are seeing in Basra as what we are seeing in the capital city, Baghdad and the other places, mostly in the south, is that Iranian-backed factions fighting Iranian-backed factions. The only difference is that some of them are in uniform and some are not.
Their power struggle throughout the country and indeed this may be our crystal ball into our future Iraq without the Americans.
Iran backs every horse in the race. There is even allegation and some even suggest that Iran has colluded to some degree with al-Qadea to some degree who is diametrically opposed to Tehran.
Iran does not want to see any one force emerge that has strong hold on power and it does not have significant influence either. Especially if it is the government. It wants a government that it can work with.
The Iraqi government will never be a puppet to Tehran. Tehran wants to maintain significant influence. It already has that. Even American commanders openly admit that what the Americans have been doing by default is to consolidate Iranian influence in Iraq.
There is a security situation in Iraq. Life in Basra is a nightmare and daily life is affected. That is happening through a number of factions; some factions are within the army, some within the police, within the provincial council or provincial government. Iran has finger in all of these pies and for now it suits them to see this instability. This is something that the Americans, quite confidently, can see.