Since December 2017, and especially following the 2022 uprising that brought global attention to the potential overthrow of the clerical regime, nationwide and provincial uprisings have become the central issue in the power struggle among Iran’s ruling factions. Each faction attempts to intimidate the others with the threat of the next uprising, aiming to impose their own rescue plans for the regime as a means to claim authority.
In an article published on May 8, the newspaper Ham-Mihan warned, “Given that the dire economic situation alone can lead to accumulated anger, logic dictates avoiding actions that would be like pouring oil on the fire. Some groups are implementing provocative policies that exacerbate the existing anger and dissatisfaction in society. The question is, why do these groups take such actions? Are they not concerned about the social and political consequences? Have the protests of 2022 not taught a lesson to avoid repeating past mistakes?”
Driven by the fear of social explosion, Ham-Mihan further criticized the excessive repression by the Raisi government, writing, “Some believe that ideology and extreme beliefs are the main factors perpetuating behaviors that incite anger and protests. According to this view, certain individuals generate anger and dissatisfaction through their policies. They are indifferent to the outcomes of these policies and merely see it as a ‘duty.'”
This internal warning highlights the regime’s deepening anxiety over the potential for further unrest and the conflicting approaches within its ranks on how to maintain control.
Watch and judge how this insider is warning that #IranRevolution is at the regime's doorsteps. pic.twitter.com/C8ywVnrVJN
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 3, 2023
The source continues, “It seems that increasing dissatisfaction in society, if it leads to street protests, also benefits this group. This super-revolutionary faction with extremist views has always profited from such events and discontent. In 2009, following widespread protests, the extremist faction used this as a pretext to eliminate its opponents. The fight against ‘seditionists’ became an excuse to disqualify anyone who disagreed with them. The political outcomes of the 2017 and 2019 protests are now clearer than ever.”
This media outlet, associated with a faction sidelined from power by the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during internal purges, warns that Khamenei’s current path is leading the state toward the ultimate regime change. This becomes more evident as the author of the article desperately tries to dissuade people from protesting and expressing their anger.
Ham-Mihan writes, “Past protests may have had social benefits for the people. However, from a political perspective, at least in the short and medium term, they had no benefits for the people. These protests not only failed to achieve the protesters’ political demands but also created an opportunity for an extremist group to exploit the situation.”