The Times(London) May 11, 2010
Deborah Haynes, Defence Editor
Iran is focused on improving a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles but needs at least four more years to be able to target London and more than a decade to threaten the East Coast of the United States, a leading think-tank said yesterday.
The analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) came after Tehran said that it had test-fired for the first time a series of short-range Fajr (Dawn) missiles in the Gulf.
“The missiles were fired from surface to sea and hit the target with great precision,” Kiomars Haydari, deputy chief of the army ground forces, was quoted by a local news agency as saying.
The Fajr-5 missile is 6.6 metres (22ft) long, with a range of 75km (47 miles).
The IISS said that Iran is also working to develop much longer-range weapons and noted that all of the country’s ballistic missiles are inherently capable of carrying nuclear bombs.
“In tandem with efforts to expand its nuclear capabilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran is making robust strides in developing ballistic missiles,” the IISS said in its report: Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities. “The two programmes appear to be connected, with the aim of giving Iran the capability to deliver nuclear warheads well beyond its borders.”
The think-tank noted, however, that Tehran denies any interest in nuclear weapons and insists that its missiles are defensive in nature.
The report will add to the debate on Iranian military intentions, with the US pushing for another round of sanctions against the country, which it believes is pursuing a covert programme to develop nuclear bombs.
Fuelling such suspicion, the IISS said that Iran is developing a medium-range, solid-propellent missile called Sajjil-2, which is potentially capable of delivering a 750kg (1,650lb) warhead to a range of about 2,200km.
“Iran is the only country to have developed a missile of this reach without first having developed nuclear weapons,” Dr John Chipman, the director general and chief executive of IISS, told a press conference.
The London-based think-tank believes that Iran wants to develop more accurate medium-range missiles before turning its attention to intercontinental weapons, which could strike the US. It will need to conduct at least a dozen test flights to achieve a reasonable measure of accuracy.
“Therefore, Iran is not likely to field a liquid-fuelled missile capable of targeting western Europe before 2014 or 2015,” the report found.
The institute said: “A notional Iranian ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile), based on No-dong and Scud technologies, is more than a decade away.”
Already coming into range is any country within a 1,600km radius, with Israel and Turkey at Iran’s very limits, although accuracy remains a problem.
“The confident destruction of a single fixed-point military target, for example, would require Iran to allocate a very significant percentage, if not all, of its missile inventory to one specific mission,” the IISS said.
It noted that Iranian engineers have become less dependent on foreign help. The country was even able to put a small satellite into low-Earth orbit in 2008, adding to its potential military capabilities.
“Iran’s accomplishments over the past five to seven years are impressive,” the IISS said.
Tehran has been more active and successful in its ballistic missile development than even North Korea, according to the IISS.
However, the country still remains reliant on certain elements of foreign technology. This is becoming harder to access because Russia and Ukraine — once the primary sources of the liquid-propellant engines used in missiles — are adhering more closely to international guidelines on missile technology control, according to the think-tank.
