Le Figaro
November 6, 2007
Commentary by Professor Raymond Tanter *
The French Government sent an aristocrat, Alexis de Tocqueville, to America to study the prison system in 1831; he came away fascinated with the dedication of common Americans to the political process and wrote a classic book, Democracy in America. Fast forward to a century and a half later.
This week finds the maiden voyage of President Nicolas Sarkozy to America. Although he may not write a classic, President Sarkozy’s visit is as likely to advance the cause of French-American relations as much as the sojourn of de Tocqueville.
A key topic on the table is the need for a common European-American policy on Iran. To reinforce western diplomacy and forestall military action, President Sarkozy is in a position to develop a new European-American optionââ¬âan Iranian solution to the threat from Tehran. On October 25, after months of intense debate within the Bush administration, the U.S. decided to blacklist the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the ideological army of the Iranian regime and its extraterritorial unit, known as the Qods Force, nine other IRGC-affiliated entities, as well as prominent commanders. Washington also included three major Iranian banks in its sanctions list.
The U.S. sanctions initiative comes as Tehran is going through internal purges and shakeups. The most conspicuous was the "resignation" of Ali Larijani as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. His replacement, Saeed Jalili, is a protégé of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad’s efforts to consolidate his dominance over the regime’s nuclear policy make it evident that Tehran has no intention of backing off from its drive to obtain nuclear weapons. And so far, Iran’s nuclear clock has been ticking faster and faster than the stalled Western response.
This makes a coherent transatlantic policy regarding Iran a necessity, not a luxury. The prominence of the issue and gravity of geopolitical considerations make it imperative that America and Europe speak in one voice as partners for peace. Washington cannot solve this crisis on its own.
The American decision to blacklist the IRGC was long overdue. Its raison d’être is to protect the clerical regime through the export of terrorism, Islamism, and brutal suppression of the Iranian people and to advance the production of weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons.
For its part, the EU maintains considerable leverage with regard to Iran. The EU member states constitute Iran’s main trading partner, with a 35% total market share. As such, the EU is well-positioned to exert significant economic pressure on Iran; but in order to make developments precipice on political front, Paris and Washington should look for change in the Iranian street. The demonstrations by Tehran University students who virtually tossed Ahmadinejad out of their campus while chanting "down with the dictator," and major anti-government demonstrations in Tehran in October made it clear that Iran is rife with disenchantment and dissent.
There are three major options for President Sarkozy to discuss with President Bush: diplomacy, military action, and an Iranian solution through empowering the Iranian people via their main democratic opposition. The more Europe stresses a diplomatic option that is failing, the more it would increase the prospect for Washington to select the military option, which Europe correctly wants to avoid. To avoid a nuclear armed Iran or war, both the United States and Europe have a common interest to emphasize the third solution, or the Iranian solution. The role that the Iranian opposition can play could be very significant in an Iranian solution.
A 2006 study by the Washington-based think tank, the Iran Policy Committee compared public attention paid by Tehran to various opposition groups. The Mujahadeen-e Khalq (PMOI) represents the most credible threat to the extremist regime in Tehran. The IPC found that the Iranian regime’s official positions referred to the PMOI is 350 percent more than all other groups combined.
The EU and the US can realize their latent leverage over the Iranian regime by recognizing the independent Iranian opposition groups, in particular the Mujahadeen-e Khalq. The EU and the US can do so by lifting the terrorist designation of the PMOI. President Sarkozy has an opportunity to help President Bush move in that direction. Now is the time to reinforce the unilateral American sanctions against the Iranian regime with a common EU-American approach. Alexis de Tocqueville would be proud to see a President of France advancing the cause of French-American relations, reinforcing diplomacy, and preventing war.
* Professor Raymond Tanter is a former senior staff of the U.S. National Security Council and is now the President of "Iran Policy Committee," a Washington-based think-tank. He teaches at Georgetown University.
