Analysis
Kuwait Times – Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator for the Iranian regime, was arrested on Wednesday at his home and taken to Tehran’s Evin prison on national security-related charges, specifically "communication and exchange of information with foreign agents," Persian-language Fars News Agency reported. This carefully timed arrest appears to be yet another move in the covert intelligence war between Iran and the United States.
Mousavian has served as Iran’s ambassador to Germany, secretary of the foreign policy committee of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and as a leading negotiator in nuclear talks with the European Union. After losing his SNSC post in 2005, Mousavian became deputy head of the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Research, a think-tank closely affiliated with former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mousavian’s dismissal, along with Ali Larijani’s replacement of SNSC chief Hassan Rowhani, is likely due to the sacked officials’ dissenting views on how Iran should manage its nuclear ambitions. On a number of occasions, Mousavian has recommended that Iran bargain over its rights to a nuclear fuel cycle and give in to the UN Security Council’s demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.
The arrest is part of an intensifying covert intelligence war between Iran and the United States. This battle has involved a number of public incidents, including: the apparent abduction of an ex-FBI agent, the US detainment of five Iranian officials in the northern Iraqi city of Arbil, the Mossad hit against Iranian nuclear scientist Ardeshir Hassanpour and the retaliatory assassination in Paris against the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry Mission to Europe, the abduction of an Iranian official in Baghdad (who was later swapped for the 15 British detainees), as well as three recent defections of senior Iranian officials to the West.
Alarmed by these defections, Iran has ramped up its covert collection efforts around the globe to root out additional moles working for the West. Though Mousavian was a prominent public figure who apparently was entrusted with a great deal of responsibility in national security matters, there is reason to believe he has been cooperating with Western intelligence for several years. The United States has made a concerted effort since the Iranian Revolution to target Iranian figures destined for the country’s security and intelligence organizations, and Mousavian apparently made the cut. That is, until, Iran’s internal counterterrorism inquest caught up with him.
The arrest also carries significant implications for Rafsanjani. Mousavian is a major player in Rafsanjani’s political and financial network, and is known to have a close relationship with the former president. Mousavian’s apparent contact with the West could compromise Rafsanjani’s political career.
Mousavian’s work at the Center for Strategic Research provided him an ideal opportunity to meet with his handlers outside the country. Such a job involves spending a lot of time abroad attending conferences and giving presentations at various foreign institutes, which would have allowed Mousavian to fly more easily under the radar of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security. In all likelihood, Mousavian was under investigation for quite some time, and the announcement of his arrest is intended to serve a political purpose.
That purpose lies in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm El-Sheikh, where the United States and Iran were expected to engage in multilateral negotiations over Iraq. Now that Washington and Iran have brought their private negotiations into the public sphere, Iran is looking for an insurance policy to keep the United States in check during these talks. It is worth noting that the original report about Mousavian’s arrest appears to have come from Iran’s state-owned IRNA. By strategically timing this announcement, Iran is sending a clear signal to Washington that now is the time to fold and engage in serious negotiations. – Stratfor
