Despite repeated denials by its top officials, the Iranian regime is heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, according to documents obtained by the Iranian dissident group “GhiyamSarnegouni” from the regime’s Presidential servers and sites.
The documents are a general directive by the regime’s Foreign Ministry and minutes of a meeting between the regime’s top foreign relations officials, including Ali Bagheri Kani, Tehran’s top negotiator in the talks with world powers to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
The first document reveals that: “Available evidence suggests that the delivery of missiles to Russia has either taken place or is currently underway.” In the second document, Bagheri Kani underlines that “Interaction with Russia is crucial” and “In the previous round of negotiations with Ukraine, the lack of interaction with Russia was a point of complaint from the Russian side.” In conclusion, he highlights the fact that “We have security needs that the West does not fulfill, but Russia is willing to cooperate,” thus underlining Tehran’s willingness to increase its presence in Ukraine if demanded by Moscow.
The documents confirm that the “drone crisis” acknowledged by Iranian officials exposes the regime’s vulnerability to international scrutiny over its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. These documents demonstrate a significant shift in the regime’s rhetoric and offer guidelines for its representatives and spokespersons on how to adapt to the prevailing knowledge, where deception has become the primary role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The revealed documents delve into the challenges the regime faces as it struggles to reshape its narrative, often contradicting its own statements and those of its Russian counterparts. As mounting evidence refutes the regime’s futile denials, it is forced to adjust its rhetoric to evade diplomatic repercussions. These documents also underscore the regime’s growing reliance on Moscow, as cooperation with Russia is deemed non-negotiable, highlighting the regime’s strategic dependence on its ally. However, the writings hint at underlying tensions between the two regimes, as the clerical regime’s efforts to deceive Kyiv and evade international condemnation strained its relationship with Moscow.
The documents and their translation follow:
In the name of God,
The Ukraine War: Current Challenges and Potential Solutions for Mitigating its Negative Effects.
A – The reality faced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Iran’s approach to the war):
- Changing the tone of military officials and implicitly confirming the provision of drones to Russia.
– The letter from the General Staff of the Armed Forces advises refraining from making statements regarding Iran not providing an offensive drone to Russia.
– Statements by the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces: Today’s propaganda regarding the use of Iranian drones in the Ukraine war is part of the enemy’s psychological warfare. Regardless of the possibility that many of these claims may be false, it demonstrates the effectiveness, importance, and high rank of the Islamic Republic in the domain of drones.
2. According to available evidence, the delivery of missiles to Russia has been completed or is in progress. In their recent letter, the General Staff of the Armed Forces stated that explicit statements about Iran not sending missiles should be avoided.
3. Repetitive reports about the acquisition of a significant number of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia indicate serious military interaction between the two countries, in which Ukraine may play a part.
B – Consequences of the status quo:
Political:
- Bilateral relations with Ukraine have significantly deteriorated following the delivery of drones to Russia, reaching the lowest level since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. In addition to the unofficial reduction in the level of relations and the decrease in the number of Iranian embassy staff in Ukraine, other measures, including the suspension and cancellation of several bilateral cooperation agreements by Ukraine, are being considered. In addition to the unofficial reduction in the level of relations and the decrease in the number of Iranian embassy staff in Ukraine, other actions, including the suspension and cancellation of several bilateral cooperation agreements by Ukraine, are being considered. Given the development of Iran-Russia defense cooperation, there is a possibility of complete severance of relations by the Ukrainian government.
- International cases becoming entangled with the drone issue: Europe now sees Iran as a party to the conflict that has violated the security boundaries of the continent. Resolving the drone issue has been raised as a prerequisite for the continuation of nuclear negotiations by the European Union. Alongside the imposed sanctions on our country and the European Union’s pursuit of human rights issues related to internal developments in our country, this adds complexity to the situation.
Legal:
- Ukraine has accused Iran of war crimes and genocide (statement by the Ukrainian President at the Congress).
- 37 countries supporting Ukraine against Russia have filed a lawsuit in the International Court of Justice based on Article 63 of the ICJ Statute, alleging war crimes. This same process could also be applied to Iran.
- Europe and Ukraine are preparing legal documents and necessary infrastructure to file a lawsuit against the Islamic Republic of Iran, under the pretext of aiding Russia in the war against Ukraine.
- The attention given to the US’s pursuit of three European countries in accusing Iran of violating Resolution 2231, under the pretext of sending drones to Russia, should be taken into account. Although the process and stages of this matter may be time-consuming, the possibility of triggering the snapback mechanism within this framework should be considered a serious threat.
Public diplomacy:
In the public diplomacy domain, due to widespread attacks by the West and Western media, Iran is introduced as one of the hostile parties (alongside Russia). Being associated with a country that is labeled as an aggressor by the West can be perceived as a blow to Iran’s prestige, given Russia’s aggressive behavior.
C – What should be done?
Based on the reality that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is currently facing, the continuation of cooperation with Russia has been assumed, and apparently, the option to stop or even reduce defense cooperation with Russia in the war in Ukraine is not open for discussion. Now, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is confronted with reality (where the decision of the entire state to cooperate with Russia and prevent its defeat in the war) along with a series of consequences. As part of the country’s managerial and executive framework, it is obliged to minimize the negative consequences of the current situation within the scope of its duties and authorities. For this purpose, a package of proposed actions is suggested.
A – Political domain:
- Managing relations with Ukraine:
– Enhancing the political capacity of the embassy (appointing a new head, sending political experts temporarily).
– Engaging in activities in Moldova (pursuing obtaining domestic licenses and then negotiating with Moldova).
– Pursuing expert-level negotiations with Ukraine (telephone conversation with the Minister, following up on holding the second round of negotiations, the regional director’s trip or Mr. Baharvand’s trip to Kyiv for negotiations).
2. With Russia:
– Coordinating positions, especially after the paradigm shift by the Armed Forces Headquarters.
– Informing about negotiations with Ukraine
– Presenting the Islamic Republic of Iran’s demands from Russia in exchange for the delivery of drones and weapons
- With the European Union: Europe is certain about Iran’s delivering drones to Russia and denial would not be a viable solution.
– Regarding the issue of Ukraine and drones, it is necessary to first determine the level of interaction (European Union, troika, or Ukraine’s neighboring countries).
– It may be necessary to consider a set of topics, including Ukraine, human rights, and nuclear issues, as a comprehensive package in interaction with Europe.
– A proposal for trilateral cooperation with neighboring countries, which has been well received by Poland.
– Presenting a plan to meet Ukraine’s needs in the energy sector and other areas through multilateral cooperation with European countries.
B- Legal domain
– Following up on identifying the legal actions of the European Union and Ukraine against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
– Activating Iranian representative organizations in Europe and international organizations to uncover (possible) actions taken in pursuing legal action against the Islamic Republic of Iran under the pretext of sending weapons to Russia in the war in Ukraine.
C – Public diplomacy domain
– Coordination at two levels (domestic and bilateral institutions with Russia), especially considering the new approach of the central command.
– Organizing briefings for ambassadors and military attachés of European countries residing in Tehran.
– Using the capacity of the research office to hold joint research meetings with European research institutions, especially from Eastern Europe.
– Activating public diplomacy by embassies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Europe.
– Publishing articles reflecting the positions of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the war in major Western media outlets.
In the name of God,
Minutes of the Ukraine Session – 25-12-2022
To examine the dimensions of the drone crisis and take necessary measures for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to manage the issue, a meeting was held on Monday, December 25, 2022, with the participation of relevant officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the office of the esteemed Political Affairs Deputy of the Ministry. The most important topics discussed in the session are as follows:
Dr. Bagheri:
- Summary of expert negotiations with Ukraine in Oman: 1) A mutual agreement was reached to continue negotiations and 2) the approach of both parties towards negotiations was not negative.
- According to the Europeans, Ukraine is willing to continue negotiations in Oman.
- The implications of the concluded negotiations with the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief in Jordan: 1) Political implications: Europe believes that as long as the issue of drones is unresolved, we should not expect progress in nuclear talks. 2) Legal implications: Europe is in the process of preparing legal documents against the Islamic Republic of Iran. 3) Public diplomacy: In this domain, the Islamic Republic of Iran has suffered the most damage, and almost no measures have been taken.
- Poland is ready to hold a trilateral meeting. The Poles had an appropriate stance in this matter.
- From Europe’s perspective, the issue of delivering drones from Iran to Russia is certain, and the denials of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this regard will not be effective. Therefore, it is necessary to move beyond mere denials and focus on more serious actions.
- Interaction with Russia is important. In the previous round of negotiations with Ukraine, we had no interaction with Russia, which was criticized by the Russian side.
- Some members of the Supreme National Security Council believe that we should remain silent on the drone issue and demand evidence from the claimant party.
Mr. Baharvand:
- We need to determine how far we want to go in our interaction with Russia. We don’t know if we will proceed with missiles and other weapons or not.
- We must act at three levels: Ukraine, Russia, and Europe.
- In our interaction with Ukraine, if the issue is strictly limited to drones, we may be able to satisfy the Ukrainians.
- In our interactions with Russia, we should ask them for greater coordination between the two sides through a trip to Moscow or by inviting the Russian ambassador to Tehran. They have denied the drone issue, and we have confirmed that we have delivered them.
- In our interactions with Europe (after interactions with Ukraine), we should present the results of the agreements with Ukraine and inform them that we have reached an agreement with Ukraine. We can engage with some European countries, including Poland and even the UK.
Mr. Saadat:
- Europe perceives Iran as a party to the conflict.
- Besides being involved in the conflict, we have also entered the security sphere of Europe.
- To clarify our position, we need to answer this question: Does the Islamic Republic intentionally seek entry into the European security sphere?
- Europe has a unified position regarding the drone issue. While Switzerland has failed to join the human rights sanctions against Iran, it did participate in the drone-related sanctions, which indicates the importance of the issue for them.
- In summary, Europe’s stance is that we are complicit in war crimes against the Ukrainian people.
- For interaction with Europe, it is not necessary to work with all countries; rather it would suffice to work with the main ones.
Saberi Ansari:
- We have entered a global conflict, which is decisive for the future of the country.
- Our experience in negotiating with Ukraine on the airplane [PS752 Ukrainian airliner that was shot down by the IRGC] has shown that Ukraine is not a player that can resolve issues with us.
- In interactions with Europe, the European Union must be our main interlocutor.
Mr. Mousavi:
- In US Congress, the President of Ukraine labeled Iran as a partner in Russia’s war crimes and genocide.
- Europe and Ukraine are preparing legal documents and necessary foundations against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- 37 countries have supported Ukraine against Russia, under the pretext of committing war crimes and have raised their claims in the ICI, which may follow a similar path for Iran.
- Europeans will echo Ukraine’s statements.
Summary (Mr. Bagheri):
- We have security requirements that the West does not fulfill, but Russia is willing to cooperate.
- In return, we should raise our strategic demands to the Russians. Apparently, a committee has been formed in this regard and a meeting has been held.
- Military interaction with Russia is now a reality in our relations.
- Personally, I believe that in the interaction with Europe, we should not involve the European Union in the negotiations with Ukraine, as it would become a tool in their hands against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Necessary actions:
Decisions made:
- To inquire with the diplomatic missions concerning the actions taken by Europe to plan the legal framework against the Islamic Republic of Iran in relation to drones.
- Responding to the statements made by the advisor to the President of Ukraine against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- To develop a package of necessary measures to manage the drone issue in the areas of politics, law, and public diplomacy. In this package, the possibility of reconciliation between the United States and Russia over Ukraine should also be taken into consideration.
- The honorable minister should engage in a phone conversation with their Ukrainian counterpart after necessary coordination.
- For negotiations with Ukraine, coordination with Russia should be pursued.
- It is essential to establish comprehensive coordination between the military apparatus and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the auspices of the Supreme National Security Council.
